China's solar surplus offers energy & climate opportunity | Ember

Utilisation of &#;spare&#; solar manufacturing capacity could significantly advance the energy transitions of countries that need it most, increasing energy access and avoiding the need to build new fossil fuel power stations.

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This analysis looks at a group of countries generally positioned below the global average in terms of development, including many with limited energy access. These nations are in general vulnerable to impacts of climate change and supportive of a global clean energy transition. We define this group via membership of three blocs: the Least Developed Countries (LDCs), Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), and Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF). 

Collectively, this group comprises 95 countries &#; 45 in Africa and the Middle East, 29 in Asia and the Pacific, and 21 in Latin America and the Caribbean (full list in Appendix 1). Seven of these countries were omitted from the calculations in this report owing to absences of data, leaving 88 in the final analysis (44 in Africa and the Middle East, 23 in Asia and the Pacific, and 21 in Latin America and the Caribbean). As the population of the seven omitted countries is less than 1% of the total, their omission does not materially affect the conclusions.

Assuming that the rate of electricity demand growth seen across the 88 countries in recent years continues for the rest of this decade, we estimate the additional demand in at 676 terawatt hours (TWh). Meeting this additional demand entirely with solar would entail deploying a capacity of 454 GW before (for details on methodology, see Appendix 2). Deploying more solar capacity would reduce the proportion of electricity that each country obtains from fossil fuel generation, constraining greenhouse gas emissions, reducing import dependence and reducing exposure to fossil fuel price spikes.

Levels of electricity access vary widely across this group of countries. Twenty-five countries are at 100%, and many more close to it. But in some sub-Saharan African countries the level is much lower &#; 11% in Chad, 10% in Burundi and 8% in South Sudan. Across the 88 countries, the combined population without access to electricity currently numbers 519 million people. Given projected population growth, that number would be expected to rise to 809 million in , in the absence of measures to increase access. 

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As an indicative exercise, we calculated the additional electricity demand incurred in if electricity access were to be extended to the entire population of each country. Our estimate is that this would require 843 TWh of electricity compared with &#; 167 TWh higher than just meeting the expected demand growth. This could be delivered by deploying an additional 112 GW of solar capacity, bringing the required deployment to 566 GW, which is just one-seventh of the &#;spare&#; solar manufacturing output.

Improving electricity access is a complex issue, and the indicative calculation above should not be taken as implying that &#;spare&#; solar represents a complete solution. In some of the 88 countries, particularly those where electricity is already available around the clock and levels of access already good, solar panels would need to be properly integrated with the national system, potentially entailing buildout of the grid and flexibility measures such as storage. In other settings, where levels of electricity access, hours of availability per day and per-capita consumption are much lower, minimal additional infrastructure would be needed. But in these settings, a much more substantial rise in generation would be needed to raise the amount of electricity available per person per day to levels seen in more prosperous countries, while deployment of batteries alongside solar would extend electricity availability into the evening. However, the scale of the &#;spare&#; capacity relative to the size of the expected demand increase highlights the fact that the &#;spare&#; solar capacity could make a significant contribution, if deployment were supported appropriately.